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Machine-Learning-Assisted Multi-Objective Environmental Modelling of Trace Metal and Mineral Pollution in Drinking Water: A Case Study from Kénitra, Morocco
 
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1
Geosciences and Natural Ressources Laboratory, Department of Geology, Faculty of Sciences of Kenitra, Ibn Tofail University, Kenitra, Morocco
 
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Laboratory of Electronic Systems, Information Processing, Mechanics and Energetics. Faculty of Sciences Ibn Tofail, Kenitra, Morocco
 
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Management and development of natural resources, Faculty of Sciences Meknès University Moulay Ismael
 
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Department of Biology, Faculty of Sciences Meknès University Moulay Ismael and Faculty of Sciences and Technologies of Errachidia, Morocco
 
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Laboratory Geosciences and Natural Ressources, Higher School of Education and Training Ibn Tofail University Kenitra MoroccoIbn Tofail University, Kenitra, Morocco
 
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Laboratory of Natural Resources and Sustainable Development, Faculty of Sciences, IbnTofail University, Kenitra, Morocco
 
 
Corresponding author
Sakina MEHDIOUI   

Laboratory Geosciences and Natural Ressources, Higher School of Education and Training Ibn Tofail University Kenitra MoroccoIbn Tofail University, Kenitra, Morocco
 
 
 
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ABSTRACT
Urban drinking-water systems increasingly face a dual challenge: trace metal contamination and disturbed mineral balance, yet many utilities still rely on descriptive monitoring rather than optimisation-driven management. Although machine learning and multi-objective evolutionary optimisation are widely applied in environmental modelling, their end-to-end integration under small-sample monitoring constraints remains under-demonstrated for actionable utility decision support. This study develops a surrogate-assisted multi-objective optimisation framework that transforms routine laboratory measurements into implementable management strategies for urban drinking-water quality. Fourteen household taps across seven distribution zones in Kénitra (Morocco) were analysed for health-relevant trace elements and macro-minerals. Gradient-boosted tree models (XGBoost) were trained under leave-one-out cross-validation to quantify predictive skill under small-sample conditions. Predictive performance was element-dependent, with R² ≈ 0.70 for Ni, 0.53 for P, 0.29 for Cr, and 0.08 for Ag, consistent with stronger signal for Ni/P and attenuated learnability for near-detection and highly variable trace elements. The trained surrogates were then coupled to a four-objective NSGA-III optimisation to simultaneously reduce regulatory exceedance (sanitary risk), compress inter-zone disparities (homogeneity), improve Ca/Mg/Na/K mineral balance, and constrain intervention effort under contrasting sanitary-priority and mineral-priority profiles. The resulting Pareto fronts reveal a narrow compromise region in which sanitary risk and mineral imbalance are jointly suppressed with marginal increases in operational effort. From this region complemented by extreme non-dominated points seven operator-facing scenarios were derived, linking explicit reduction fractions and mineral adjustments to predicted system-wide outcomes (e.g., exceedance objective as low as 0.0023, inter-zone variance down to ~0.0000–0.0004, mineral deviation as low as 10.5075, and effort proxy as low as 2.4162, in the reported objective units). By demonstrating robust optimisation under small-sample conditions typical of municipal monitoring programmes, this study provides a transferable modelling architecture for data-limited urban utilities and strengthens the integration of machine learning with environmental decision-making.
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