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Vulnerability analysis of coastal tidal flooding in pekalongan city using composite mapping analysis (CMA) method
 
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1
Universitas Negeri Semarang
 
2
Universitas Ivet
 
 
Corresponding author
Edi Kurniawan   

Universitas Negeri Semarang
 
 
 
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ABSTRACT
Coastal tidal flooding remains a major environmental hazard threatening the coastal areas of Pekalongan City, Indonesia. This study aims to analyze the spatial distribution of tidal flood vulnerability and identify the most influential driving factors affecting the coastal zone of Pekalongan City using the quantitative Composite Mapping Analysis (CMA) method based on spatiotemporal data from 2022 to 2026. The analysis integrates seven environmental physical parameters: observed tidal flood inundation (derived from Sentinel-1 SAR imagery), Coastline buffer, River buffer, land subsidence, land cover (derived from Sentinel-2A imagery), elevation (National Digital Elevation Model/DEM Nasional), and rainfall (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data (CHIRPS). The validity of the digital modeling results was empirically verified through field observations and structured interviews conducted in the affected areas. The spatiotemporal analysis revealed considerable fluctuations in the extent of observed tidal flood inundation, covering 678 ha in 2022, decreasing to 525 ha in 2023 and 493 ha in 2024, reaching its lowest extent of 281 ha in 2025, before increasing sharply to 596 ha in 2026. The cumulative flood footprint totaled 810 ha, representing 17.54% of the entire study area. Ground-truth validation demonstrated a very high level of spatial agreement with the CMA model. The southern part of Pekalongan Utara District was confirmed as the most severely affected area, experiencing inundation depths reaching an adult's waist and flood durations of up to 10 days due to the combined effects of severe land subsidence and embankment failure. In contrast, the northern part of the district has experienced a marked reduction in flood frequency since the construction of a coastal seawall in 2022. This finding further demonstrates that the selected contemporary study period (2022–2026) provides an appropriate temporal basis for producing a near-real-time vulnerability map while minimizing bias associated with major structural interventions. These findings provide a robust scientific basis for local governments to establish priority strategies for disaster risk reduction and sustainable coastal management in Pekalongan City.
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