Climate change is a critical challenge for arid regions because of rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns, placing significant strain on the available water resources. This study examined future climate projections for the southern region of Iraq, focusing specifically on Basrah, Dhi Qar, and Al-Muthanna. The LARS-WG8 stochastic weather generator was used for model generation, driven by the outputs of four global climate models from the CMIP6 archive using two different emissions scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Throughout the period of record (1995-2024), daily precipitation amounts, maximum and minimum temperatures were collected and used for model calibration and validation. The historical data accumulated thus far indicates a consistent increase in warm temperatures over the period of study. Tmax will likely experience mean increases of approximately 3.1 °C (compared to the average ) for SSP2-4.5 and 4.6–4.9 °C (compared to the average) for SSP5-8.5 emissions, with Tmin increasing by approximately 2.7–2.9 °C (compared to the average ) for SSP2-4.5 and 3.9–4.2 °C (compared to the average ) for SSP5-8.5 emissions. As a result, the analysis demonstrates a continuing trend of warming across the entire study area, and that the temperature difference between day and night will decrease over this time period, leading to greater amounts of heat stress. The expected future amount of rainfall each year is also expected to decrease gradually by 3-6mm over the next few years and then also decrease by 5mm-10mm over a longer period. In conjunction with an increasing trend in temperature, along with the anticipated decrease in precipitation, the growing climate vulnerability of southern Iraq will be increased, highlighting the need for immediate and effective adaptation strategies to allow continued economic viability for both agricultural and urban development purposes. The results of this research will provide useful information for assessing climate risks and developing sustainable water management plans in dry and semi-dry land areas.