Soil erosion poses a serious threat to agricultural productivity in tropical hilly areas, particularly in the Juwet Sub-Watershed with its steep slopes and intensive agricultural activities. This study aims to estimate erosion potential using USLE modeling and identify dominant factors through sensitivity analysis as a basis for conservation planning. The five USLE factors were mapped through the collection of primary and secondary data. Primary data consisted of soil samples from 19 observation points, while secondary data included rainfall data for the 2014–2023 period, SRTM 30m, and remote sensing imagery. The One-At-a-Time (OAT) method was used for sensitivity analysis to determine the contribution of each parameter to the erosion rate. The results showed that the total erosion potential reached 1,775,552 tons/year, concentrated in the middle and upper parts of the sub-watershed with a slope of 25–40%. The sensitivity results revealed that topography (LS) was the most dominant factor with a contribution of 56.71%, followed by land cover (C) at 34.66%, and conservation practices (P) at 8.33%. Temporal variation shows a pattern consistent with monthly rainfall erosivity, where the highest erosion potential occurs from November to March, peaking in November at 392,324.37 tons/month. More than 60% of the land has not implemented adequate conservation techniques. This quantitative dominance indicates the relative importance of topographic control on erosion dynamics in the study area. The present study enabled the identification of the dominant influence of topography on erosion processes and supports the application of sensitivity analysis as a basis for prioritizing conservation planning.