Forecasting Land Use and Land Cover Changes in the Malaprabha Right Bank Canal Command Area through Cellular Automata and Markov Chain Modeling
			
	
 
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				1
				Department of Civil Engineering, PG Centre, V.T.U, Belagavi, Karnataka, 590018, India
				 
			 
						
				2
				Department of Civil Engineering, Atria Institute of Technology, Karnataka, 560024, India
				 
			 
										
				
				
		
		 
			
			
		
		
		
		
		
		
	
							
															    		
    			 
    			
    				    					Autor do korespondencji
    					    				    				
    					J.H.  Surendra   
    					Department of Civil Engineering, Atria Institute of Technology, Karnataka, 560024, India
    				
 
    			
				 
    			 
    		 		
			
							 
		
	 
		
 
 
Ecol. Eng. Environ. Technol. 2024; 6:54-65
		
 
 
SŁOWA KLUCZOWE
DZIEDZINY
STRESZCZENIE
To formulate an effective growth management plan, it is imperative to comprehend the dynamic changes that transpire. This study focused on identifying such shifts spanning four decades, from 1990 to 2020, and utilized a GIS-integrated approach, employing Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov Chain model within TerrSet software for the MRBC area, to predict Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) for 2030. The classification method's accuracy evaluation yielded overall accuracy percentages of 94.11%, 94.11%, 90.19%, and 94.12% for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively, accompanied by Kappa values of 0.921, 0.921, 0.895, and 0.922.
The LULC map for 2020 was forecasted and compared to the actual map for validation, revealing a discrepancy of less than 5% in class distribution. The study's findings indicated a 12.32% reduction in agricultural land (151.7 km2) compared to the 1990 LULC map in the projected 2030 map. In this future scenario, the converted region is allocated to urban and barren land classes. Consequently, decision-makers are urged to take necessary measures to preserve agricultural land from conversion, ensuring the enduring sustainability of agriculture.