Industrial soil contamination may persist long after initial deposition, yet the spatial conditions favoring subsequent redistribution are rarely evaluated together with historical chemical measurements. This study integrates an archived 2021 soil dataset from 21 locations around the KAT refinery in Kirkuk, Iraq, with multi-temporal Landsat 8 observations (2017, 2021, and 2025), SRTM terrain analysis, modeled surface-flow connectivity, and scenario-based susceptibility mapping. Eleven metals were available, with a pronounced Zn-Cu-Pb hotspot in the northwestern waste-valley sector. A standardized Zn-Cu-Pb hotspot composite (HCS) represented this multimetal pattern. SRTM elevations agreed strongly with an independent contour-derived terrain surface (Spearman rho approximately 0.962; RMSE approximately 1.82 m). Between 2017 and 2025, median NDVI declined from 0.127 to 0.112 and SAVI from 0.107 to 0.092, whereas NDBI increased from 0.039 to approximately 0.059. Long-term SAVI and NDVI changes showed the strongest exploratory associations with HCS (rho approximately 0.592 and 0.567), although neither crossed the multiple-testing-adjusted 0.05 threshold. Direct quantitative forecasting was rejected after poor leave-one-out cross-validation. Instead, a Pollution Redistribution Susceptibility Index (PESI) integrated source pressure, terrain/connectivity, and long-term surface response under alternative weighting scenarios. Consensus PESI showed moderate internal spatial agreement with HCS (rho approximately 0.468, p approximately 0.033), but this is not independent validation because the documented MA-MB-MC sector contributes to source-pressure definition. The final 30-m priority raster covered 99.8001 km². Tier 1 occupied 8.7282 km² (8.746%) and Tier 2 occupied 2.9520 km² (2.958%), totaling 11.6802 km² (11.704%); MA-MB-MC occurred within Tier 1. The framework does not predict future metal concentrations; it identifies areas where documented contamination, environmental connectivity, and surface change jointly indicate greater susceptibility to persistence or redistribution. Independent repeat soil sampling is required for external validation. The study converts a sparse archived contamination baseline into a testable susceptibility framework without treating remote-sensing indices as direct metal measurements.