This study aims to quantify the frequency, severity, and spatial distribution of agricultural droughts in the Thabo Mofutsanyane District, South Africa, and to assess the relative contributions of precipitation and vegetation conditions to drought impacts. Monthly rainfall data from 1906 to 2023 were analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at multiple timescales, while MODIS vegetation indices including the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), and Vegetation Health Index (VHI) were processed in Google Earth Engine for the period 2002–2022, the study identified both long-term trends and localized patterns of drought stress. This multi index approach enabled the identification of both long term drought trends and localized vegetation stress patterns. The results reveal that drought frequency has increased over the last century, with extreme events in 1919, 1965, 1992, 2015, and 2018, while the 2018 event affected up to 80% of the district. Vegetation indices highlighted areas of severe local stress as well as pockets of resilience, demonstrating that vegetation responses are not solely determined by precipitation. Correlation analysis revealed strong and statistically significant relationships between VCI and VHI (r = 0.902, p < 0.001) and between VHI and TCI (r = 0.886, p < 0.001), while weak and non-significant correlations were observed between SPI6 and vegetation indices, underscoring the role of temperature and vegetation stress. Limitations of the study include the shorter temporal coverage of vegetation indices compared to rainfall records and the absence of socio economic factors that may influence resilience to drought. The combined analysis of SPI and satellite-derived vegetation indices quantified drought severity across the district, revealing that temperature-driven vegetation stress often intensified drought impacts independently of rainfall anomalies. This study identified specific areas consistently vulnerable to severe droughts, providing a spatially explicit assessment that can directly guide drought risk management and adaptation strategies.