Land cover changes are one of the dominant factors influencing soil erosion in a landscape, including in the minraleng sub-wateshed, Maros Regency. This study aims to project land cover changes in 2032 using molusce, and calculate the projected erosion in the Minraleng Sub-Watershed in 2032 using QSWAT. In the QSWAT simulation, the 2022 land cover map and the 2023 land cover projection are used as scenarios. In general, Agriculture is the most dominant with an area of 16,173 ha (2022) and 16,178 ha (2023). Forests decreased slightly from 7,295 ha (2022) and 7,291 ha (2032). Residential was 316 ha (2022) and 317 ha (2032). Meanwhile, shrubs were 2,200 ha (2022) and 2,201 ha (2023). Rice fields 2,580 ha (2022), and 2,582 ha (2032). The QSWAT simulation results show that erosion increased from 45,965 tons/ha/year (2022) to 55,125 tons/ha/year (2023). This results indicates that, without adequate conservation efforts, the risk of land degradation will continue to increase over time Keywords: Minraleng sub-watershed, land cover change, erosion, MOLUSCE, QSWAT