The preservation of aquatic ecosystems largely depends on water quality. In this context, the analysis focuses on the evaluation and modeling of the water quality of the Ghrib dam, located in the wilaya of Medea, characterized by marked seasonal variations. The main objective is based on the analysis of six quality indicators: water temperature (TW), dissolved oxygen (DO2), PH, nitrates (NO3), turbidity (TUR), and organic matter (OM), in order to better understand their temporal dynamics and predict their future developments. The data were collected over a period (2018-2024), and then ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models were developed to model the temporal trends and provide 24-month forecasts. The stationarity test was verified by the DUKEY-FULLER (ADF) test, validating the application of the ARIMA model for each parameter. The results of the ARIMA model demonstrate a good ability to capture the trend with satisfactory performance indicator values and offer reliable forecasts over 24 months with appropriate confidence intervals. This study provides a solid foundation for ensuring good water quality monitoring and contributes to the development of an adapted water resource management strategy considering natural and anthropogenic pressures.