Waste in the archipelagic border area must be appropriately managed to maintain diplomatic relations. Indonesia's Riau Islands Province is an archipelagic region in Indonesia with limited solid waste infrastructure development. The capacity of the waste infrastructure depends on the rate of waste generation and is influenced by the socioeconomic conditions of the community. This study aims to study the model for estimating the rate of waste generation in the Riau Islands. This study uses data before and during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2019 and 2020. The estimation model uses a multiple linear regression model with independent variables such as gross regional domestic product, access sanitation, total population, and human development index. The fixed variable is the incidence of waste generation rate. During the pandemic Covid-19, the generation and composition of waste in the Riau Islands Archipelago did not experience significant changes, so the waste generation and composition characteristics are the same. However, the variable human development index (0.053) and the population (0.012) significantly increase the waste generation rate. The gross regional domestic product (0.017) negatively correlates, reducing the waste generation rate. The Riau Islands, which has an ocean area of 96%, is a source of life and significant to manage because the waste can be released into the ocean. Therefore, management from sources through policies considering the gross regional domestic product, total population, and human development index needs to be considered to reduce waste generation in the archipelago.